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DTN Midday Grain Comments     01/19 11:10

   Corn, Beans Lower; Wheat Mixed

   Corn is 5 to 6 cents lower, soybeans are 24 to 27 cents lower, and wheat is 
narrowly mixed.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 80. The dollar index is 20 
points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mostly higher 
with crude up $0.70. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are firmer with 
gold up $12.50.


   Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents lower at midday with two-sided trade so far 
turning weaker during the day session, with spread action still solid up front 
with sales of 128,000 metric tons to Japan, and 100,000 to Israel announced. 
Ethanol margins will remain poor with soft demand, and no major relief from 
corn values short term. Basis is likely to weaken further as trade assesses 
near-term cash needs. Weekly export inspections were ok at 876,774 metric tons. 
On the March contract support is the gap area at $5.17 with the 20-day at $4.85 
below that, with the next level up the upper Bollinger Band at $5.47, and the 
contract high at $5.41 1/2 just below that.


   Soybeans is 24 to 27 cents lower at midday with wild trade continued with 
early positive trade giving way to a 31 cent break before trade rebounded with 
better spread action before sliding again. Meal is 10.50 to 11.50 lower and oil 
is 10 to 20 points lower. Basis mostly stabilized to end the week with crush 
likely to take precedence over shipping in coming weeks with crush margins 
narrowing overall and new crop seeing more interest in recent export bookings 
with 132,000 metric tons to China. Brazil should catch rains short term, with 
Argentina action mixed. Weekly export inspections were very strong at 2.058 
million metric tons. The March chart has resistance at the fresh high at $14.38 
then the upper Bollinger Band at $14.59, with support the overnight low at 
$13.85, with the 20-day still well below the market at $13.30.


   Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade finding support from 
Russian export taxes announced last week, along with a cap on Argentine exports 
as well as food inflation remains a concern in many exporting countries but 
early gains have faded with spillover from the row crop. The dollar remains 
above 90 on the index with light selling to start the week. The plains are 
expected to see limited moisture with cold scares remaining limited for now. 
Kansas City is at 32-cent discount to Chicago after hitting the tightest level 
in weeks and then reversing, with Minneapolis at -32 tightening back up from 
early weakness. Weekly export inspections remain a bit soft at 276,898 metric 
tons. Kansas City March chart support is the 20-day at $6.02, and resistance is 
the fresh high at $6.60.

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